On September 22, the 2026 Symposium on China’s Coal Consumption Cap, themed “A Decade in Review and Looking Ahead,” was held in Beijing. Hosted by the Institute of Energy, Peking University, the symposium brought together more than 300 representatives from government agencies, businesses, research institutions and the media to review the progress and experience of China’s coal consumption cap policies over the past decade and discuss coal consumption control, industrial transition and regional coordination during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.

JIN Zhijun, Academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Dean of the Institute of Energy, Peking University, said in his opening remarks that China had implemented a series of policies to cap coal consumption over the past decade, leading to continued improvements in the country’s energy mix. From 2015 to 2025, coal’s share of primary energy consumption fell from around 64% to 51.4%. At the same time, wind and solar power expanded rapidly, with their combined installed capacity surpassing that of coal-fired power for the first time. The role of coal-fired power has also gradually shifted from conventional baseload generation toward providing basic support and system flexibility.

Coal nevertheless remains an important pillar of China’s energy security. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, coal consumption is expected to reach its peak, while the operating environment for the coal industry will continue to change. XIE Rongbin, Chairman and Editor-in-Chief of China Energy and Automobile Communication Group and Editor-in-Chief of China Energy News, said that China should accelerate its green and low-carbon transition while ensuring energy security, and harness technological innovation to drive the intelligent transformation of the coal industry, with “AI+” serving as an important driver.

Coal Cap Policies Continue to Deepen, Delivering Environmental and Health Benefits

Over the past decade and more, coal cap policies have gradually expanded beyond their initial focus on air pollution control to encompass energy restructuring, industrial transition and climate change mitigation.

YANG Fuqiang, Distinguished Research Fellow at the Institute of Energy, Peking University, reviewed the evolution of China’s coal consumption cap policies in his keynote presentation. He noted that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, coal control focused primarily on air pollution reduction, while the 14th Five-Year Plan period placed greater emphasis on energy security and the development of renewable energy. During this period, coal consumption in the power sector declined substantially, while the industrial sector also achieved significant reductions in coal consumption. With the rapid expansion of renewable energy and electrification, coal-fired power and coal-based chemical industries will remain key areas of attention during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, alongside continued efforts to reduce the use of dispersed coal and promote electrification at the end-use level.

DU Xiangwan, Academician and Former Deputy President of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, stressed that although coal will continue to play a role in ensuring energy security for some time, the direction of coal control and energy transition will remain unchanged. The transition requires careful management of the relationship between renewable energy and fossil fuels. China should follow the principle of establishing new energy capacity before phasing down existing capacity, accelerate the development of renewable energy and make orderly adjustments to the conventional energy system, rather than adopting simplistic or one-size-fits-all approaches.

XU Huaqing, Former Director-General of the National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, also noted that coal control needs to be considered in conjunction with energy security, economic development and social equity. While controlling the growth of coal consumption, policymakers should also take into account the employment and fiscal implications of the coal industry’s transition and promote a smooth energy transition through structural adjustment and a gradual shift away from coal.

Coal control has also generated significant co-benefits for the environment and public health.

WANG Jinnan, Academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and Former President of the Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, said that over the past decade, non-power-sector coal use in key air pollution control regions had continued to decline, while emissions of major air pollutants had fallen substantially nationwide.

Taking China’s “Coal Triangle” region as an example, he noted that the region accounts for 73% of China’s coal production, 38% of global coal production and approximately 31.9% of China’s total coal consumption. The chemical, steel and power sectors are the region’s main coal consumers. Between 2005 and 2025, the region’s carbon dioxide emissions continued to increase, but the rate of growth slowed significantly, with the average annual growth rate falling from 10.85% during the 11th Five-Year Plan period to 2.63% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.

PAN Xiaochuan, Professor in the Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Peking University, further examined the health impacts of coal control. According to estimates by his research team, coal control measures could prevent approximately 50,000 to 90,000 premature deaths and avoid economic losses of around RMB 100 billion to RMB 290 billion each year. His research also indicates that further reductions in PM_2.5 concentrations would continue to generate health benefits, suggesting that improvements in air quality should not be viewed as having reached an endpoint once a particular target has been achieved.

A New Stage for Coal Control: Greater Synergy with Industrial Transition and Climate Governance

As China’s energy transition continues to accelerate, the implications of coal consumption control are extending beyond the domestic energy and environmental sectors.

CUI Yiyun, Associate Professor and Research Director of the Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland, said that China’s coal consumption and carbon emissions are entering a turning point, with implications for the global energy transition and international climate action. She noted that the expansion of renewable energy and end-use electrification are important drivers of the peaking of coal consumption and carbon emissions. At the same time, greater attention should be paid to structural changes in the economy and to reducing non-CO₂ greenhouse gas emissions, including methane emissions from coal mining.

The symposium featured three parallel breakout forums focusing on power-sector transition, low-carbon industrial development and coordinated regional transition.

The Power Sector: Achievements and Outlook forum reviewed the transformation of the power sector over the past decade of coal cap policies, focusing on changes in the role and functions of coal-fired power, the development of renewable energy, and the construction of a new-type power system during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Participants discussed pathways for power-sector transition as well as the development of new business models and emerging forms of the industry.

The Industry: Pathways for Dual Carbon Control forum focused on coal-intensive sectors, including steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum and coal-based chemicals. Participants reviewed progress in coal control over the past decade and discussed the implications of carbon emissions dual-control policies for industrial decarbonization during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Discussions also addressed the development of standards for industrial product carbon footprints and corporate carbon accounting.

The Local Governance: Pathways for Coordinated Regional Transition forum focused on coal control and the clean replacement of dispersed coal use. Discussions covered practices in key regions, including the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas, the Yangtze River Delta and the Fenwei Plain, as well as adjustments to industrial and economic development patterns in major coal-producing provinces, east-west cooperation and the development of zero-carbon industrial parks. Participants also explored pathways for coordinated regional transition under the carbon emissions dual-control targets of the 15th Five-Year Plan.

Participants noted that, after a decade of implementation, China’s coal consumption cap policies have evolved from a policy approach focused primarily on pollution control into an important policy instrument for reshaping the energy mix, promoting industrial transition and reducing carbon emissions. Looking ahead to the 15th Five-Year Plan period, coal control will enter a new stage, requiring both efforts to peak and gradually reduce coal consumption and continued recognition of coal’s role in energy security and the power system.

How to balance energy security and transition, emissions reduction and economic development, as well as regional differences and a just transition, will remain important issues for further research and policy development in the next stage of coal control.